Researchers at Boston College's Social Welfare Research Institute (SWRI) may be the first bearers of extremely good news for charities: there might be a lot more money becoming available over the next decades than anyone has predicted.

In a study simulating the 55 years between 1998-2052, SWRI Director Paul Schervish and Associate Director John Havens found that anywhere from $41 trillion to $136 trillion in wealth could change hands in the United States. Of that, an estimated $6-25 trillion could go to charity.

This new report, called "Millionaires and the Millennium: New Estimates of the Forthcoming Wealth Transfer and the Prospects for a Golden Age of Philanthropy," stands in sharp contrast to the widely-cited estimate of $10.4 trillion in wealth transfer over a similar period. The lower figure comes from a 1990 study by researchers simulating the years 1990-2044.

The SWRI study marks the first new estimate since that 1990 study. In order to get a better handle on the various factors affecting the transfer of wealth, the researchers used what they referred to as "a first-of-its-kind microsimulation model."

The varying estimates on wealth produced by the study are the results of changes in assumptions about current level of wealth, real growth in wealth, and savings rates, according to SWR reports.

The researchers are asking that people use the lower $41 trillion estimate, since their colleagues have not had a chance to review and comment on the report.

Even that figure, which produces a $6 trillion estimate for charity, is cause for optimism, the researchers say.

"We conclude that a golden age of philanthropy is dawning, especially among the wealthy and upper affluent," says Schervish.

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